BFCM 2025 Won't Save You If Your Strategy Is Wrong

Q4 is coming fast. 

Most brands are already planning their Black Friday strategy. 

But here's the thing: BFCM revenue spikes don't always translate to profitable Q4 growth. 

You can crush Black Friday and still end the quarter underwater if your strategy focuses purely on discounting without thinking about margin protection or post-holiday retention. 

After working with brands through multiple holiday seasons, the operators who win Q4 aren't the ones offering the deepest discounts…

They're the ones maximizing total revenue from November through December without sacrificing profitability. 

In this email, we're breaking down: 

• Why BFCM revenue spikes don't guarantee profitable Q4 growth 

• How to structure offers that maximize revenue without destroying margins 

• The post-BFCM activation strategy that turns one-time buyers into repeat customers 

Let's dive in. 

The BFCM Revenue Trap 

Black Friday drives revenue, but revenue without margin protection means you're scaling unprofitably. 

When you blast 40% off to your entire list, you're leaving money on the table from customers who would've bought at 20% off or even full price. 

Heavy discounting also trains customers to wait for sales. 

December revenue drops because buyers expect another promotion. 

January full-price conversions tank because your audience has learned to only buy on discount. 

Plus, acquisition costs spike during Q4. 

If you're acquiring customers at inflated CPMs with deep discounts, your payback period extends and cash flow suffers even when top-line revenue looks strong. 

How to Structure Offers That Maximize Revenue

The key is segmentation, since not every customer needs the same discount depth to convert. 

Segment by Customer Value:

• High-LTV customers

They've purchased multiple times and don't need 40% off. 

Offer them 15-20% or exclusive early access. 

• Mid-tier customers

They've purchased once or twice but need more incentive. 

Give them 25-30% off to reactivate. 

• Cold subscribers

New customers are the only segment that needs aggressive discounts. 

Deploy 35-40% here where it actually moves the needle. 

Use unique discount codes or email segmentation to control who sees what offer depth. 

• Tier Offers by Purchase Threshold

Free shipping over $75. 

20% off orders over $150. 

This pushes customers to add more while preserving margin on smaller orders.

The Post-BFCM Activation Strategy 

The biggest opportunity most brands miss is the 7-14 days after Black Friday. 

You just acquired thousands of new customers. 

If you go silent, 70-80% will never buy again. 

Brands that activate BFCM buyers within 3-7 days of delivery see repeat purchase rates 40-60% higher than brands that wait. 

Here's how: 

Day 1-2: Send delivery confirmation with product usage tips 

Day 3-4: Recommend complementary products that pair with what they bought 

Day 5-7: Deploy a time-sensitive offer exclusively for recent BFCM buyers 

On October 29th, the Operators Titans Masterclass is bringing together 25+ operators including Taylor Holiday, Bryan Cano, Sean Frank, and Mike Beckham to share their Q4 strategies. 

Taylor Holiday (Common Thread Collective) and Miranda Pettinger (Cuddle Clones) open with two keynotes. 

Then lightning panels with executives from …

• Ridge

• True Classic

• HexClad

• Tushy

• MUD\WTR

• Musely

The live Operators Hotline is where you bring your toughest questions and get answers directly from operators who've scaled through dozens of holiday seasons. 

Plus, you’ll also get a step-by-step playbook for expansion from Q4 into 2026.

FREE to attend. Recorded for replay. But tickets are limited.

You can register for the masterclass right here.

October 29th, 1pm–2:30pm EST (10am–11:30am PST).

Final Thoughts 

Q4 revenue isn't just about crushing Black Friday. 

It's about protecting margins through segmented offers, activating new buyers immediately, and building systems that drive profitable growth through year-end. 

If you're serious about optimizing Q4, the Operators Titans Masterclass on October 29th is where you need to be. 

25+ operators. Live Q&A. Register now.

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Thank you for reading! I appreciate you.

Disclaimer: Special thanks to Operators for sponsoring today’s newsletter.