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Build a Smarter BFCM Playbook That Protects Your Margins...
Segment BFCM offers by customer value to maximize Q4 revenue without killing January full-price sales.
Kody Nordquist
October 09, 2025
Spending over $50,000+ / month on ads but not seeing the results you hoped for? We’re currently taking on 2 brands for Q4 to help them scale and hit their goals. If you’re looking for a better option for growing your brand, let’s chat. Book a Call Today
Every year, the same pattern repeats…
Brands blast 40% off to their entire list on Black Friday.
Revenue spikes for five days.
Then January hits and full-price sales flatline because customers learned to wait for the next promotion.
After spending years working with brands during Q4, the brands that win long-term aren't the ones offering the deepest discounts.
They're the ones structuring offer stacks that maximize total revenue without conditioning customers to only buy on sale.
In this email, we're breaking down:
The offer sequencing that drives revenue from pre-BFCM through Cyber Monday
How to segment offers by customer value without alienating high-LTV buyers
The Holiday Offer Architecture that protects January full-price sales
Let's dive in:
If Amazon’s doing it, it works. There’s a reason they use direct mail every holiday season.
They know it slices through digital noise and gets offers into customers’ hands (literally).
And while you’re not Amazon, you can launch direct mail way faster and easier than even they can. With PostPilot.
That said… We dropped our best offer of the year. The BFCM Catalyst. You’ll get:
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Results GUARANTEED: Hit an aggregate 3x ROAS on your BFCM retention campaigns or get free credits on your next campaign.
Offer expires on 11/7 Grab it here.
The Offer Sequencing Strategy
Successful BFCM strategies don't start on Black Friday, they start the week before with a sequenced rollout that captures demand at every price sensitivity level.
Pre-Black Friday (November 22-27)
Start with your highest-value customers first.
Send early access to a 15-20% discount or exclusive product drops to customers who've purchased in the last 90 days at full price.
This captures buyers who would've converted anyway while making them feel valued for their loyalty.
Black Friday (November 28)
Deploy your widest-reaching offer, but tier it by purchase history.
High-LTV customers get 20-25% off.
Mid-tier gets 30%.
New subscribers or inactive customers get 35-40%.
Use email segmentation and unique discount codes to control who sees what depth.
Small Business Saturday (November 29)
Shift to gift-with-purchase or bundle offers instead of straight percentage discounts.
This moves inventory, increases AOV, and differentiates from the discount fatigue everyone's experiencing.
Cyber Monday (December 1)
Final push with urgency messaging and threshold-based offers.
Free shipping over $100, or tiered discounts that increase with cart value.
Blasting the same 40% off to everyone leaves money on the table and erodes brand equity.
Tier 1: High-Value Repeat Customers
Customers who've purchased 3+ times in the last year at full price.
Offer them 15-20% off or exclusive early access.
They'll buy because they already love your brand.
Tier 2: Mid-Tier Engaged Customers
Customers who've purchased 1-2 times or engaged with recent emails but haven't converted in 90+ days.
Offer 25-30% off with urgency messaging.
Tier 3: Inactive or Cold Subscribers
Customers who haven't purchased in 6+ months or new subscribers who haven't converted yet.
Deploy 35-40% off here.
You're not risking margin erosion with customers who weren't going to buy at full price anyway.
Use unique discount codes or email segmentation to ensure each tier only sees their designated offer depth.
The Holiday Offer Architecture
Maximizing Q4 revenue while protecting January sales requires structure beyond just the discount depth.
Discount Timing
Compress your promotional window.
Running discounts from November 20 through December 10 trains customers to wait.
Instead, focus intensity around BFCM weekend and one final push mid-December.
Threshold Structures
Use tiered cart thresholds to increase AOV without blanket discounting.
Free shipping over $75, 20% off orders over $150, 30% off orders over $250.
Email Segmentation
Never send the same Black Friday email to your entire list.
Segment by purchase history, engagement, and LTV.
High-value customers should feel like they're getting exclusive treatment.
The gap between winning and losing brands comes down to creative because media buying is automated, targeting is restricted, and platform features are universal.
Creative is the differentiator.
20+ speakers from Tether Insights, Fraggell Productions, Retentio, Feastables, Longplay and other top agencies.
Over 9 hours covering:
→ AI for ad creative that converts
→ TikTok vs Meta platform strategies
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→ Retention and lifecycle growth
→ Funnel congruency
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Expected 4,000+ registrants including brands and agencies.
Built in partnership with Marpipe, Replo, Proxima, and CreativeOS: the platforms powering today's highest-performing campaigns.
October 15th. One day. Virtual. Free.
Final Thoughts
Black Friday doesn't have to destroy your brand equity or train customers to only buy on sale.
The brands that win long-term structure offer stacks that capture demand at every price sensitivity level while protecting margins on their best customers.
Segment by customer value, sequence offers strategically, and compress your promotional window.
You'll drive more Q4 revenue without sacrificing January full-price sales.
Want to learn more? Connect with me on social 👇
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Thank you for reading! I appreciate you.
Need some additional 1:1 support? Book a call with me directly.
 Sincerely, |
Disclaimer: Special thanks to PostPilot & Creative OS for sponsoring today’s newsletter.