The Q4 Framework That Saved My Clients (It Can Do The Same For You)

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I’ve seen hundreds of brands each year run into the same problem. 

They absolutely crush Q4 sales numbers, see record-breaking months, and charts are going up and to the right. 

But then… January hits. 

Bank account's empty. 

The marketing budget's gone. 

And their growth stalls while competitors start scaling. 

After helping 24 different brands scale to 8-9 figures I’ve noticed the common trend isn't sales performance…

It has always been their cash-flow timing. 

When CPMs spike 200–400% and inventory locks up working capital, even the most profitable brands find themselves cash-poor after their best quarter…

I’ve seen too many brands crush Q4 only to fall behind because they didn’t plan for what comes after. 

In this email we're breaking down: 

• The hidden cash flow trap that kills profitable brands even after their best quarter

• What happens when the most successful brands allocate around 50% of their annual marketing budget to Q4

• The January Restart Fund strategy that separates winners from “the cash-strapped”

Let's dive in.

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The Hidden Cash Flow Trap

Most brands see Q4 revenue projections and get excited. 

But revenue isn't cash flow… here’s the reality operators run into: 

1. You spend big on inventory in September-October

(That's cash out the door before sales hit.)

2. CPMs start climbing in November. 

(Black Friday 2024 data shows retail media spending nearly doubled with CPCs jumping 71%.) 

3. December scaling requires even more ad spend when costs are at their peak. 

4. January arrives and you need fresh capital to restart growth, but it's all tied up. 

You ‘win’ Q4 but lose momentum for the year ahead… because it all really comes down to managing cash flow across the whole 4-month window.

The Smart Budget Distribution Strategy

Instead of frontloading spend, successful brands use a staged approach that balances growth with liquidity, here's how: 

• September: 25% of Q4 budget 

Focus on early inventory and campaign setup, CPMs are reasonable so it’s prime testing time… 

And avoid over-ordering.

• October: 20% of Q4 budget 

Scale what worked in September and prepare for cost increases but don’t overspend.

• November: 35% of Q4 budget 

Peak spend month for BFCM, heavy investment while preserving capital for January.

• December: 20% of Q4 budget 

Capitalize on holiday momentum without burning reserves needed for January.

The key is to preserve working capital to restart growth in January when CPMs reset and competitors flood back in.

The Q4 Financial Framework

This is the system that keeps you profitable through the chaos: 

Step 1: Calculate Your Real Budget 

Q4 projected revenue × 0.6 = max spend on ads + inventory… no exceptions.

Step 2: Lock Your January Fund First 

Set aside 15% of projected Q4 revenue for January restart, keep it untouchable, treat it like payroll.

Step 3: Channel Priority by Month 

• September-October: Focus budget on remarketing and lookalikes while CPMs are low 

• November: Heavy prospecting during peak traffic quality 

• December: Shift to retention flows and repeat buyers who convert faster 

Step 4: Emergency Scaling Rules 

Reserve around 10% of each month for scaling wins without breaking the framework.

Step 5: Hard Monthly Caps 

When November hits its limit on the 25th, you stop…

November caps affect December performance.

I was reviewing competitor strategies last week and realized most brands are still doing competitive research manually by:

→ Checking competitor websites for promotions
→ Guessing launch dates based on social media posts
→ Building strategies on assumptions instead of data

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Final Thoughts

Q4 isn't about who spends the most… 

It's about who spends the smartest. 

The difference between brands that crush Q4 and stay strong versus those that win the quarter but lose the year comes down to cash flow discipline. 

Most competitors just hope their budget works out… 

The winning brands, though, build a system that guarantees it. 

Decisions are made in September, not when CPMs spike in November. 

Run your numbers, lock your January fund, and set monthly caps. 

Your January self will thank you when competitors scramble while you scale.

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Thank you for reading! I appreciate you.

Until Next Time ✌️
- Kody

Disclaimer: Special thanks to Stack Influence & Particl for sponsoring today’s newsletter.