This Attribution Trick Will Change How You Scale

Welcome back to the 134th edition of Nord Media

​​Multi-touch attribution is having its moment.

According to a 2023 study by MMA Global, 50% of companies are already using it to track how every touchpoint shapes a customer’s path to purchase.

But MTA alone isn’t enough.

On paper, it sounds like the perfect fix to see beyond last-click. But in practice, it can still blur the full picture. 

That’s why top operators are moving beyond basic MTA and into smarter territory and pairing it with things like chain-based modeling, marketing mix modeling (MMM), and incrementality testing to get the real story behind conversions.

This means saying goodbye to last-click once and for all.

In this email, we’re covering:

• Why chain-based attribution models are taking over

• How to find the right tools to power smarter insights

• How to transition without blowing up your workflows

Let’s dive in:

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Why Chain-Based Attribution Is a Smarter Play

Last-click is like giving all the credit to the waiter for a Michelin-star meal.

Sure, they took your order. But what about the chef? The ingredients? The farmers?

Same idea here. 

When someone converts after clicking an email, that email might’ve been the last touch, but not the one that did all the heavy lifting. 

What about the YouTube ad that got them interested? Or the blog post they found three days earlier?

Chain attribution solves this.

It looks at every possible path a customer could take, then asks: What happens if we remove one of those steps? Would they still convert?

This “removal effect” is what makes chain models so powerful. They help you spot which channels are truly moving the needle, and which ones are just showing up late and claiming the glory.

So instead of blindly scaling whatever has the best platform-reported ROAS, you start making calls based on actual contribution..

Find Tools That Help You Get There

Now, you don’t need to build this yourself in a massive spreadsheet with 18 tabs and a prayer.

There are tools on the market built to handle this exact thing. Most of them pull from your first-party data like Shopify, Meta, Google, Klaviyo, etc., and run chain modeling in the background using things like Markov chains or Bayesian math.

They assign probability scores to each touchpoint. Instead of giving 100% credit to one click, they split it across the full journey. You’ll start seeing things like:

• Top-of-funnel channels that drive awareness (but never get credit in last-click)

• Middle-of-funnel content that nudges people forward

• Bottom-of-Funnel touchpoints that seal the deal

And once you know which channel, which creative, and which messaging plays which role, you stop making decisions in the dark.

The key is finding a system that gives you clean inputs, actionable insights, and ideally, a UI that doesn’t make you want to scream.

How to Make the Switch Without Breaking Stuff

Attribution models are not just for your dashboard. They change how you budget, report, and optimize across the board.

So you don’t want to rip the Band-Aid off too fast.

Here’s how to switch without creating chaos:

• Run dual models for a bit. Keep last-click reporting in place while shadow-tracking chain attribution behind the scenes. It’ll help you build internal trust before going all in.

• Walk your team through it. Attribution models sound complicated until you explain them with real examples. Show how credit shifts across a real customer journey.

• Use the data to observe, not just act. Before you start reallocating budget, use chain attribution to spot patterns. Where is performance being over- or underrepresented?

• Ease into new KPIs. Don’t trash your old ROAS benchmarks overnight. Let both models live side by side while you recalibrate.
  

Remember: this is about long-term clarity, not short-term chaos. The goal is to make better decisions, not confuse the team with a new math puzzle every week.

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Final Thoughts

Last-click is outdated.

It’s easy. It’s comfortable. But it’s not telling you the truth.

Modern marketing isn’t a straight line. It’s a web of influence, repetition, and timing. If you keep assigning all the credit to the last thing people click, you’ll keep misreading what’s actually working.

Chain-based attribution helps you see the full picture. Paired with MTA, MMM, and incrementality testing, you’ll finally have a model that reflects real buying behavior, not just reporting convenience.

And once you’ve got that, your growth strategy gets a whole lot sharper.

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Thank you for reading! I appreciate you.

Sincerely,
Kody

Disclaimer: Special thanks to Surefoot & Webtopia for sponsoring today’s newsletter.