Before You Touch Your Q2 Campaigns, Run These 3 Checks
Q2 data looks different. Here's why - and what to do about it.
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Q2 started yesterday. You opened Ads Manager this morning, and the numbers look different.
ROAS is down. CPMs are up.
Before you change anything, understand what you're looking at. Three things shifted on or around April 1st that make this week's data unusually noisy:
CPMs are normalizing upward from Q1 lows.
Meta's engage-through attribution went live April 1st, changing how conversions are counted.
Ad sets that had budget changes in late March are re-entering learning phase.
Any one of these would create noisy data. All three at once means this week's dashboard is the hardest data read of the quarter.
Operators who make structural changes this week in response to what they see will create performance problems on top of a data shift.
Here are the three decisions - with the checks that tell you which one applies.
Your customers are already shopping on ChatGPT - and most brands have no idea whether they’re showing up or not. Over 700 million people use ChatGPT every week, and the traditional purchase journey of “search - compare - click - buy” has collapsed into a single AI conversation that delivers 1 to 3 recommendations instead of 20 links. If your store isn’t one of those recommendations, you don’t lose a click - you never existed in the conversation at all.What makes this channel different from anything before it is that ChatGPT shopping results are organic - you can’t buy your way in. Winning here requires something called Answer Engine Optimization (AEO): structured product data, conversational content, and enough third-party brand mentions - reviews, directories, editorial coverage - that the AI actually recognizes and trusts your brand. If your only real presence is your own website, there are no external signals to validate you, and an unvalidated brand simply doesn’t get recommended.Most ecommerce stores have significant blind spots here, and there’s still time to get ahead before everyone is on a level playing field. We’re offering a free AI Visibility Audit that maps exactly where your brand stands across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and every major LLM - uncovering the technical gaps, content holes, and missed signals that are costing you visibility right now. No pitch, no obligation. Just a clear roadmap.
Decision 1: Is Your ROAS Drop Real or Seasonal CPM Normalization?
Pull CPM from the last week of March. Compare to this week.
If CPM is up 20-35% and ROAS dropped proportionally, nothing broke. You're in Q2.
If CPM is up proportionally to the ROAS decline: Hold spend and hold creative.
If ROAS decline is significantly larger than CPM increase: Investigate creative and audience.
Q1 2026 US Meta CPMs closed between $7-12 - the cheapest window since September 2025. Q2 historically normalizes 20-35% higher as competition re-enters the auction. This is seasonal.
If you read a CPM-driven ROAS drop as a creative problem and start swapping ads, you’re creating a problem where there isn't one.
Decision 2: Are Your Conversion Numbers Down or Did Attribution Change Them?
Meta's attribution change we covered in the March 12th newsletter, went live April 1st. Conversions previously counted as click-through (engagement followed by a purchase) are now reclassified as engage-through with a 1-day window.
For accounts where engage-through attribution isn't enabled, some of those conversions will appear to disappear. Not all accounts will see dramatic shifts, but the ones that do need to diagnose correctly.
To check, compare Ads Manager reported conversions to Shopify's actual orders for the same period.
If Shopify is tracking normally, but Ads Manager shows a drop: This is reclassification. Check attribution settings - is engage-through enabled? If it was turned off, those reclassified conversions aren't being captured anywhere.
If both Ads Manager and Shopify show declines: Performance issue. Investigate campaigns.
Do not adjust campaign structure in response to a reporting reclassification.
If you report to a founder, CFO, or client, send a one-paragraph heads-up before they open the dashboard. "Meta's attribution definitions changed April 1st - reported conversion counts may look lower, but actual revenue is tracking normally." Thirty seconds prevents a panic call.
Decision 3: Are Your Campaigns in Relearn and Should You Wait?
Pull any ad set showing "Learning" status.
If Q1 ended with budget changes or creative swaps in the last two weeks of March, those ad sets may be re-entering the learning phase. The first 72 hours after a change is noise.
If the ad set is in Learning status: Wait. Do not adjust budgets or creative until it has stabilized. The 50-conversion threshold per ad set still applies. Any intervention before 50 conversions resets the clock and extends the noise window.
If the ad set is stable (not in Learning): The data is readable. Diagnose normally.
The data you're seeing in a learning ad set isn't representative of steady-state performance. Making changes now extends the relearn window and costs more in wasted spend than waiting.
Final Thoughts
The data chaos of Q2 week one is predictable. The operators who hold steady this week will look smarter in week four.
The ones who panic-optimized will spend April recovering from decisions they made before they understood what the data was saying.
Q2 started yesterday. Before you touch anything - run the three checks.
If you want a growth partner who is invested in helping you build a profitable business, someone who is going to push you to make changes that focus on profitable growth. Book a call - let’s chat.
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Disclaimer: Thank you to QCK for sponsoring today's newsletter.
